Topps odds sheet Enter odds yourself
Product 2026 Topps Update Series Baseball 2026 Topps Cosmic Chrome Baseball 2026 Topps Allen & Ginter Baseball Box format Hobby (21 packs per box) Hobby Jumbo (12 packs per box) Value Box (6 packs per box) Fanatics Box (8 packs per box) Card or parallel (as printed on the odds sheet) BASE CARDS GOLD (1:21) BASE CARDS RAINBOWFOIL (1:10) BASE CARDS AQUA RAINBOWFOIL (1:250) BASE CARDS PURPLE RAINBOWFOIL (1:44) BASE CARDS BLUE RAINBOWFOIL (1:74) BASE CARDS GREEN RAINBOWFOIL (1:112) BASE CARDS 75 YEARS OF TOPPS (1:567) BASE CARDS BLACK (1:567) BASE CARDS INDEPENDENCE DAY (1:560) BASE CARDS GOLD RAINBOWFOIL (1:217) BASE CARDS CANVAS (1:851) BASE CARDS MEMORIAL DAY CAMO (1:1,701) BASE CARDS ORANGE RAINBOWFOIL (1:433) BASE CARDS WOOD (1:1,701) BASE CARDS BLACK RAINBOWFOIL (1:1,082) BASE CARDS RED RAINBOWFOIL (1:2,168) BASE CARDS FOILFRACTOR (1:10,923) BASE CARDS PRINTING PLATES (1:10,717) BASE CARD CLEAR VARIATION (1:2,058) BASE CARD VINTAGE STOCK VARIATION (1:1,502) BASE CARD GOLDEN MIRROR (1:606) GOLDEN MIRROR LEGEND VARIATIONS (1:11,904) TRUE PHOTO VARIATIONS (1:1,486) TEAM COLOR BORDER VARIATIONS (1:240) BASE CARD PLAYER NUMBER VARIATIONS (1:29,671) STAT STARS (1:11) STAT STARS PINK (1:595) STAT STARS BLUE (1:3,968) STAT STARS GREEN (1:6,006) STAT STARS GOLD (1:11,904) STAT STARS ORANGE (1:23,666) STAT STARS BLACK (1:60,240) STAT STARS RED (1:116,937) STAT STARS FOILFRACTOR (1:662,640) AUTUMN ASCENSIONS (1:16) AUTUMN ASCENSIONS PINK (1:425) AUTUMN ASCENSIONS BLUE (1:2,832) AUTUMN ASCENSIONS GREEN (1:4,285) AUTUMN ASCENSIONS GOLD (1:8,496) AUTUMN ASCENSIONS ORANGE (1:16,991) AUTUMN ASCENSIONS BLACK (1:42,297) AUTUMN ASCENSIONS RED (1:86,432) AUTUMN ASCENSIONS FOILFRACTOR (1:397,584) 2026 ALL STAR GAME (1:3) 2026 ALL STAR GAME PINK (1:298) 2026 ALL STAR GAME GREEN (1:3,003) 2026 ALL STAR GAME GOLD (1:5,952) 2026 ALL STAR GAME ORANGE (1:11,904) 2026 ALL STAR GAME BLACK (1:29,671) 2026 ALL STAR GAME RED (1:60,240) 2026 ALL STAR GAME FOILFRACTOR (1:283,989) 2026 ALL STAR GAME AUTOGRAPH (1:10,631) 2026 ALL STAR GAME AUTOGRAPH BLACK (1:24,543) 2026 ALL STAR GAME AUTOGRAPH RED (1:45,180) 2026 ALL STAR GAME AUTOGRAPH FOILFRACTOR (1:220,880) TOPPS BLACK GOLD (1:16) TOPPS BLACK GOLD PINK (1:595) TOPPS BLACK GOLD BLUE (1:3,968) TOPPS BLACK GOLD GREEN (1:6,006) TOPPS BLACK GOLD GOLD (1:11,904) TOPPS BLACK GOLD ORANGE (1:23,666) TOPPS BLACK GOLD BLACK (1:60,240) TOPPS BLACK GOLD RED (1:116,937) TOPPS BLACK GOLD FOILFRACTOR (1:662,640) MYSTICAL (1:1,515) FIRST PITCH (1:36) FIRST PITCH PINK (1:2,972) FIRST PITCH BLUE (1:19,880) FIRST PITCH GREEN (1:30,120) FIRST PITCH GOLD (1:60,240) FIRST PITCH ORANGE (1:116,937) FIRST PITCH BLACK (1:283,989) FIRST PITCH RED (1:662,640) FIRST PITCH FOILFRACTOR (1:1,987,920) FIRST PITCH AUTOGRAPH (1:17,910) FIRST PITCH AUTOGRAPH GOLD (1:35,499) FIRST PITCH AUTOGRAPH ORANGE (1:70,998) FIRST PITCH AUTOGRAPH BLACK (1:180,720) FIRST PITCH AUTOGRAPH RED (1:397,584) FIRST PITCH AUTOGRAPH FOILFRACTOR (1:993,960) HEAVY LUMBER (1:1,295) HOME FIELD (1:1,486) BASE CARD TRADED PLAYER SP (1:1,486) 1991 TOPPS BASEBALL (1:4) 1991 TOPPS BASEBALL PINK (1:298) 1991 TOPPS BASEBALL BLUE (1:1,982) 1991 TOPPS BASEBALL GREEN (1:3,003) 1991 TOPPS BASEBALL "THE REAL ONE" (1:3,265) 1991 TOPPS BASEBALL GOLD (1:5,952) 1991 TOPPS BASEBALL ORANGE (1:11,904) 1991 TOPPS BASEBALL BLACK (1:29,671) 1991 TOPPS BASEBALL RED (1:60,240) 1991 TOPPS BASEBALL FOILFRACTOR (1:283,989) ALL ACES (1:5,952) ALL ACES GOLD (1:1,987,920) ALL KINGS (1:3,968) ALL KINGS GOLD (1:993,960) MATT SZCZUR ART CARDS (1:3,968) BASE CARD ROOKIE 1952 VARIATION (1:5,952) COVER ATHLETES CARDS (1:19,880) TOPPS FLAGSHIP AUTOGRAPH PATCH CARDS (1:3,588) TOPPS FLAGSHIP AUTOGRAPH PATCH CARDS BRONZE (1:6,260) TOPPS FLAGSHIP AUTOGRAPH PATCH CARDS BLACK (1:16,309) TOPPS FLAGSHIP AUTOGRAPH PATCH CARDS RED (1:32,118) TOPPS FLAGSHIP AUTOGRAPH PATCH CARDS PLATINUM (1:186,368) HEAVY LUMBER AUTOGRAPH RELICS (1:4,690) BASEBALL STARS AUTOGRAPHS (1:735) BASEBALL STARS AUTOGRAPHS BLUE (1:3,111) BASEBALL STARS AUTOGRAPHS GREEN (1:3,356) BASEBALL STARS AUTOGRAPHS GOLD (1:5,839) BASEBALL STARS AUTOGRAPHS ORANGE (1:9,918) BASEBALL STARS AUTOGRAPHS BLACK (1:24,442) BASEBALL STARS AUTOGRAPHS RED (1:49,698) BASEBALL STARS AUTOGRAPHS PLATINUM (1:248,490) 1991 TOPPS BASEBALL AUTOGRAPHS CARDS (1:209) 1991 TOPPS BASEBALL AUTOGRAPHS CARDS BLUE (1:816) 1991 TOPPS BASEBALL AUTOGRAPHS CARDS GREEN (1:988) 1991 TOPPS BASEBALL AUTOGRAPHS CARDS GOLD (1:1,811) 1991 TOPPS BASEBALL AUTOGRAPHS CARDS ORANGE (1:3,607) 1991 TOPPS BASEBALL AUTOGRAPHS CARDS BLACK (1:9,119) 1991 TOPPS BASEBALL AUTOGRAPHS CARDS RED (1:18,407) 1991 TOPPS BASEBALL AUTOGRAPHS CARDS FOILFRACTOR (1:39,865) FLAGSHIP REAL ONE GOLDEN MIRROR AUTOGRAPH CARDS (1:3,555) FLAGSHIP REAL ONE AUTOGRAPH CARDS (1:957) FLAGSHIP REAL ONE AUTOGRAPH CARDS GREEN FOIL (1:2,063) FLAGSHIP REAL ONE AUTOGRAPH CARDS 75TH ANNIVERSARY (1:2,411) FLAGSHIP REAL ONE AUTOGRAPH CARDS GOLD FOIL (1:3,619) FLAGSHIP REAL ONE AUTOGRAPH CARDS ORANGE FOIL (1:6,905) FLAGSHIP REAL ONE AUTOGRAPH CARDS BLACK FOIL (1:17,328) FLAGSHIP REAL ONE AUTOGRAPH CARDS RED FOIL (1:35,079) FLAGSHIP REAL ONE AUTOGRAPH CARDS FOILFRACTOR (1:217,429) COVER ATHLETES AUTOGRAPHS CARDS (1:60,240) BASE CARD ROOKIE 1952 AUTOGRAPH VARIATION (1:43,216) BASE CARD ROOKIE 1952 AUTOGRAPH VARIATION RED (1:86,432) BASE CARD ROOKIE 1952 AUTOGRAPH VARIATION BLACK (1:397,584) MAJOR LEAGUE MATERIAL CARDS (1:121) MAJOR LEAGUE MATERIAL CARDS BLUE (1:989) MAJOR LEAGUE MATERIAL CARDS GREEN (1:1,474) MAJOR LEAGUE MATERIAL CARDS GOLD (1:2,920) MAJOR LEAGUE MATERIAL CARDS ORANGE (1:5,847) MAJOR LEAGUE MATERIAL CARDS BLACK (1:15,060) MAJOR LEAGUE MATERIAL CARDS RED (1:30,120) MAJOR LEAGUE MATERIAL CARDS PLATINUM (1:152,917) MAJOR LEAGUE MATERIAL CARDS AUTOGRAPH (1:2,370) MAJOR LEAGUE MATERIAL CARDS AUTOGRAPH GOLD (1:3,427) MAJOR LEAGUE MATERIAL CARDS AUTOGRAPH ORANGE (1:5,446) MAJOR LEAGUE MATERIAL CARDS AUTOGRAPH BLACK (1:13,235) MAJOR LEAGUE MATERIAL CARDS AUTOGRAPH RED (1:26,661) MAJOR LEAGUE MATERIAL CARDS AUTOGRAPH PLATINUM (1:61,319) 1991 TOPPS BASEBALL RELIC CARDS (1:92) 1991 TOPPS BASEBALL RELIC CARDS BLUE (1:958) 1991 TOPPS BASEBALL RELIC CARDS GREEN (1:1,450) 1991 TOPPS BASEBALL RELIC CARDS GOLD (1:2,873) 1991 TOPPS BASEBALL RELIC CARDS ORANGE (1:5,648) 1991 TOPPS BASEBALL RELIC CARDS BLACK (1:14,836) 1991 TOPPS BASEBALL RELIC CARDS RED (1:29,671) 1991 TOPPS BASEBALL RELIC CARDS PLATNIUM (1:70,998) RISING ROOKIE RELIC CARDS (1:232) RISING ROOKIE RELIC CARDS GOLD (1:4,645) RISING ROOKIE RELIC CARDS ORANGE (1:9,290) RISING ROOKIE RELIC CARDS BLACK (1:23,116) RISING ROOKIE RELIC CARDS RED (1:46,231) RISING ROOKIE RELIC CARDS PLATINUM (1:110,440) RISING ROOKIE RELIC CARDS AUTOGRAPH (1:3,891) RISING ROOKIE RELIC CARDS GOLD AUTOGRAPH (1:5,713) RISING ROOKIE RELIC CARDS ORANGE AUTOGRAPH (1:11,106) RISING ROOKIE RELIC CARDS BLACK AUTOGRAPH (1:27,610) RISING ROOKIE RELIC CARDS RED AUTOGRAPH (1:53,728) RISING ROOKIE RELIC CARDS PLATINUM AUTOGRAPH (1:283,989) REAL ONE RELICS (1:2,011) REAL ONE RELICS GOLD FOIL (1:10,040) REAL ONE RELICS ORANGE FOIL (1:20,080) REAL ONE RELICS BLACK FOIL (1:49,698) REAL ONE RELICS RED FOIL (1:283,989) REAL ONE RELICS FOILFRACTOR (1:1,987,920) ALL STAR STITCHES CARDS (1:302) ALL STAR STITCHES CARDS GOLD (1:3,017) ALL STAR STITCHES CARDS ORANGE (1:6,024) ALL STAR STITCHES CARDS BLACK (1:15,060) ALL STAR STITCHES CARDS RED (1:30,120) ALL STAR STITCHES CARDS PLATINUM (1:152,917) ALL STAR STITCHES CARDS AUTOGRAPH (1:3,022) ALL STAR STITCHES CARDS AUTOGRAPH GOLD (1:4,221) ALL STAR STITCHES CARDS AUTOGRAPH ORANGE (1:8,249) ALL STAR STITCHES CARDS AUTOGRAPH BLACK (1:20,285) ALL STAR STITCHES CARDS AUTOGRAPH RED (1:38,979) ALL STAR STITCHES CARDS AUTOGRAPH PLATINUM (1:198,792) 2026 ALL STAR GAME BLUE (1:1,982) 1991 TOPPS BASEBALL ALL-STAR AUTOS (1:5,359) 1991 TOPPS BASEBALL ALL-STAR AUTOS BLUE (1:15,175) 1991 TOPPS BASEBALL ALL-STAR AUTOS GREEN (1:18,407) 1991 TOPPS BASEBALL ALL-STAR AUTOS GOLD (1:13,079) 1991 TOPPS BASEBALL ALL-STAR AUTOS ORANGE (1:21,376) 1991 TOPPS BASEBALL ALL-STAR AUTOS BLACK (1:50,973) 1991 TOPPS BASEBALL ALL-STAR AUTOS RED (1:99,396) 1991 TOPPS BASEBALL ALL-STAR AUTOS PLATINUM (1:496,980) WORLD CHAMPION AUTOGRAPHS (1:60,240) WORLD CHAMPION AUTOGRAPHS ORANGE (1:116,937) WORLD CHAMPION AUTOGRAPHS BLACK (1:283,989) WORLD CHAMPION AUTOGRAPHS RED (1:662,640) WORLD CHAMPION AUTOGRAPHS PLATINUM (1:1,987,920) POSTSEASON PERFORMANCE AUTOGRAPHS (1:13,710) POSTSEASON PERFORMANCE AUTOGRAPHS ORANGE (1:27,232) POSTSEASON PERFORMANCE AUTOGRAPHS BLACK (1:68,549) POSTSEASON PERFORMANCE AUTOGRAPHS RED (1:132,528) POSTSEASON PERFORMANCE AUTOGRAPHS PLATINUM (1:662,640) 75 YEARS OF TOPPS DIE CUT AUTOGRAPHS (1:21,149) 75 YEARS OF TOPPS DIE CUT AUTOGRAPHS GOLD (1:36,144) 75 YEARS OF TOPPS DIE CUT AUTOGRAPHS ORANGE (1:60,240) 75 YEARS OF TOPPS DIE CUT AUTOGRAPHS BLACK (1:180,720) 75 YEARS OF TOPPS DIE CUT AUTOGRAPHS RED (1:331,320) 75 YEARS OF TOPPS DIE CUT AUTOGRAPHS PLATINUM (1:1,987,920) 75 YEARS OF TOPPS BASEBALL AUTOGRAPHS (1:283,989) 75 YEARS OF TOPPS BASEBALL AUTOGRAPHS PLATINUM (1:1,987,920) MAJOR LEAGUE MATERIAL DUAL AUTO (1:31,555) MAJOR LEAGUE MATERIAL DUAL AUTO ORANGE (1:60,240) MAJOR LEAGUE MATERIAL DUAL AUTO BLACK (1:141,995) MAJOR LEAGUE MATERIAL DUAL AUTO RED (1:283,989) MAJOR LEAGUE MATERIAL DUAL AUTO PLATINUM (1:993,960) ROUNDING THE BASES AUTO RELIC (1:58,469) ROUNDING THE BASES AUTO RELIC BLACK (1:110,440) ROUNDING THE BASES AUTO RELIC RED (1:220,880) ROUNDING THE BASES AUTO RELIC PLATINUM (1:993,960) CITY CONNECT SWATCH AUTO RELIC (1:12,993) CITY CONNECT SWATCH AUTO RELIC GOLD (1:25,487) CITY CONNECT SWATCH AUTO RELIC ORANGE (1:50,973) CITY CONNECT SWATCH AUTO RELIC BLACK (1:124,245) CITY CONNECT SWATCH AUTO RELIC RED (1:220,880) CITY CONNECT SWATCH AUTO RELIC PLATINUM (1:993,960) ICONIC BUYBACK REDEMPTION CARDS (1:248,490)
Boxes
Chance of at least one 64.1% in 21 packs at 1:21
Expected number 1.00 average across many openings, not a promise
Packs for a 50% / 90% chance 15 / 48 about 1 / 3 boxes of 21 packs Odds: Topps odds sheet, PDF (checked Oct 10, 2026). Packs per box: Topps Ripped box guide (Sep 15, 2026) (checked Oct 10, 2026).
Each pack counts as one try at 1 in N. The chance of at least one hit in k packs is 1 − (1 − 1/N)k , and the expected number is k / N. One 21-pack Update Series Hobby box at Heavy Lumber's 1:1,295 works out to about a 1.6% chance.
Topps' sheets print the ratio without naming the unit. Checklist Insider labels the same Update Series ratios "Pack odds" (for example "Pack odds - 1:606 Hobby; 1:148 Jumbo", checked Oct 10, 2026 ), and this calculator reads them that way.
Topps' own caveat sits on every sheet: "actual contents and odds may vary, and inclusion of a subject does not guarantee that it will appear in every parallel or variation." Odds are averages over the whole print run. They do not promise anything for one box or one case, and this page says nothing about what a card is worth.