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RookieDesk

Pull odds calculator

Topps prints its odds as ratios like 1:1,295. Pick a card from a Topps odds sheet, or type your own ratio, and see the chance of pulling at least one in the boxes you open.

Chance of at least one
85.4%
in 24 packs at 1:13
Expected number
1.85
average across many openings, not a promise
Packs for a 50% / 90% chance
9 / 29
about 1 / 2 boxes of 24 packs

Odds: Topps odds sheet, PDF (checked Oct 10, 2026). Packs per box: Topps Ripped hobby vs value guide (Sep 14, 2026) (checked Oct 10, 2026).

How the numbers are worked out

Each pack counts as one try at 1 in N. The chance of at least one hit in k packs is 1 − (1 − 1/N)k, and the expected number is k / N. One 21-pack Update Series Hobby box at Heavy Lumber's 1:1,295 works out to about a 1.6% chance.

Topps' sheets print the ratio without naming the unit. Checklist Insider labels the same Update Series ratios "Pack odds" (for example "Pack odds - 1:606 Hobby; 1:148 Jumbo", checked ), and this calculator reads them that way.

Topps' own caveat sits on every sheet: "actual contents and odds may vary, and inclusion of a subject does not guarantee that it will appear in every parallel or variation." Odds are averages over the whole print run. They do not promise anything for one box or one case, and this page says nothing about what a card is worth.

Products with odds sheets

Formats are listed only when we have a sourced pack count for them. Formats on the sheet without one (for example Fat Pack or Hanger) can still be worked out with "Enter odds yourself". See also the grading fee calculator.